It must be acknowledged that one of the characteristics of Donald Trump’s current administration in its handling of “information” is the constant creation of content that overlaps with each other, generates doubts, circulates torrents of false data, and, obviously, makes analysis more difficult. Therefore, as an expert photographer once said, what is in front of the lens is better understood if, instead of zooming in on the subject, we zoom out and take into account details that are not normally revealed if we take the image piece by piece.
It is a priority for all responsible humans to observe with great concern what is happening around and within Venezuela. The United States is developing a step-by-step plan against this sister nation, prioritizing all kinds of pressure to try to fracture the Bolivarian Civil-Military Alliance from within and eventually attempt to carry out ill-conceived military operations against the country. But let’s try to analyze this process in conjunction with other seemingly unrelated “news” items that may ultimately bring us closer to what we call reality.
As pressure on Caracas increased, Admiral Alvin Holsey, head of the U.S. Southern Command, who resigned (October 17) from his post, just over a year after his appointment. It is rare for an Afro-descendant to be entrusted with a responsibility of this magnitude, which makes the personal decision (and that of his sorounding officers) to leave office all the more difficult. Various theories have been put forward, but the most objective seems to be that the decision is the result of the official’s disagreements with the military actions already carried out against innocent civilians of various nationalities off the Venezuelan coast. It is not insignificant news that a very high-ranking military officer (and his leadership team) decided not to go to war before it began.
With so much turmoil, another piece of news that seems to have been lost on the radar these days is the filing of charges on October 17 against former National Security Advisor John Bolton for the alleged crime of retaining classified information, which he allegedly used to publicly expose the dysfunctionality of Trump’s first administration, something that does not require such sensitive data. But Bolton was the main architect of the entire anti-Venezuelan (and anti-Cuban) project developed by Trump in 2018 and 2019. Apparently, he is being made to pay for the debacle of the so-called Lima Group, for the massive theft of Venezuelan assets, and for forming the so-called “Guaidó package,” which Trump never really bought into because he considered the individual and his staff to lack leadership.
Other clues that are emerging in the picture we must appreciate come from looking at the map of South America as a whole. It was not long before the US president launched personal attacks against Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who is due to hand over power shortly and has just led the process of electing his successor within the political force he presides over. Trump’s offensive actions clearly seek to have some kind of impact on the upcoming elections and to divide the more progressive forces within the country.
Colombia shares a border with Ecuador, a country undergoing a deep political crisis with an uncertain outcome. Further south is Peru, a nation that has not emerged from a critical cycle that has led it to have a large number of heads of state in a short period of time. Could anyone think that a major military upheaval on the Caribbean coast of South America would not have a domino effect on the southern part of the region? All this without taking into account what is happening inside Bolivia, which has just had an electoral process that has brought to power a political force that will prioritize dismantling all the social progress implemented in recent years by the Morales-Arce governments.
On the international stage, Trump is resentful of not having been able to add the Nobel Prize to his resume, which he lost precisely to the person who replaced Juan Guaidó on the State Department’s payroll. Trump believed that he would have been catapulted to this recognition by a supposed ceasefire in Palestine, which has now faded away, a failure that has clearly shown Washington’s collusion with Tel Aviv. Most of those who supported this staging (a large number of Arab countries) now see how the state of Israel is arrogating to itself the right to continue selectively assassinating people, and lasting peace is becoming increasingly remote.
The speed and intensity (we are in hurricane season in the Caribbean) of Trump’s “super proposals” regarding the war in Ukraine have changed. The imminent agreements that were apparently to be reached with Russia, backed by third parties, have fallen out of the headlines. The risk of Europe being dragged into a conflict that only some of its leaders (and never its peoples) want is growing.
It would be a real waste of time to try to make sense of the charade of tariffs against third parties that are approved one day and revoked the next, but which have already had serious consequences within the forces loyal to Trump, particularly in the agricultural sector.
Let’s step away from the international focus for a moment and try to understand what is happening on the streets of the United States. The massive attacks on immigrants by ICE forces, the deployment of the National Guard to several states and cities governed by Democrats, which have intensified over the months, are now overshadowed by the fact that the United States has been living for weeks without a budget agreement for its federal agencies, a situation that has led to massive layoffs in several sectors and raised the illusion that the regular expenses of the armed forces will be covered by private donors. No one is clear on what will happen in the event of a real large-scale conflict in the Caribbean.
This lack of agreement in Congress has also served to paralyze the activity of the legislative branch, a situation that makes it easier for Trump to avoid oversight of the president’s executive actions.
Despite all this, there is internal news that is receiving little coverage and that clearly explains the essence of Trump’s chaos.
Source: Politico, Date: October 19, Title: “He’s managing the details phenomenally”: How did Trump grab all the levers in Washington?
Source: The Hill, Date: October 21, Title: Trump’s lawyers talk to the Justice Department to reach agreements on past investigations.
Source: Bloomberg, Date: October 28, Title: Trump appeals in New York the conviction (34 counts) for bribery in exchange for money, citing errors in the trial.
In reality, there is much more similar news these days, but these three stories, which do not come from “socialist” or ‘communist’ sources and have no hint of “terrorism” in their origins, clearly tell us what Trump has gone to Washington, D.C., to govern and why he creates conflicts with third parties, both domestic and foreign, to distract attention from his real objectives. His purpose has never been to “make America great again,” a difficult goal to achieve, but rather to retire without any outstanding legal issues, or at least not to leave such debts to his descendants. Something like not being awarded the Alcatraz prize for his life’s work.
The problem is that his entourage includes people from almost every subspecies, which can push the margin of error in calculations to unimaginable limits. That is why we must continue to denounce the escalation against Venezuela at all costs.
There is still time for the most prominent Trump supporters to question specific officials about their real intentions. In particular, it would be beneficial for the United States and for Latin America and the Caribbean to ask Trump’s personal secretary-advisor-archivist the following questions:
– How can he guarantee that irresponsible military action of any magnitude against Venezuela will not generate an even greater migration crisis than that experienced in 2018 and 2019?
– How is it possible to act so irresponsibly toward a player of Venezuela’s magnitude and assume that there will be no chain reaction, first toward Colombia and then toward other neighboring countries?
– If the two above scenarios occur, how will you prevent an increase in crime, especially drug trafficking, which would undermine the stability of several Central American countries and the southwestern United States?
Considering that it is practically impossible to ensure the “success” of a military coup against Venezuela from a Trumpist perspective (the US term is not used intentionally), which, in addition to violating international law, would undermine two supposed priorities on Trump’s agenda (migration and drug trafficking), it is worth asking what the real objectives are of those in his immediate circle.
These are individuals with minimal military training at best, little knowledge of multilateral affairs, zero business success, low legislative creativity, and a political “vision” that does not extend beyond the borders of Calle Ocho in Miami. Is a cabinet reshuffle imminent?
(José Ramón R. Cabañas Rodríguez is Director of the International Policy Research Center -CIPI-)
